The Fertiliser Crisis: How Iran’s Conflict Threatens Global Food Security

During a recent interview, the head of Yara warned that the ongoing conflict in Iran could jeopardise the production of billions of meals worldwide. A sudden dip in fertiliser supplies, driven by sanctions and disrupted logistics, threatens to curtail crop yields and push food prices higher, raising urgent questions about global food security. The fertiliser shortage touches three interrelated spheres. Politically, Iran’s isolation limits its ability to export phosphate and nitrogen products, while Western sanctions impede the flow of raw materials and financing needed for production. Economically, the spike in input costs erodes farm margins, especially for smallholders who lack the capital to switch to alternative inputs, and inevitably translates into higher retail prices. Socially, reduced harvests intensify food insecurity in regions already vulnerable to climate stress, potentially fuelling migration and geopolitical tension. Contextualising the crisis reveals a long‑standing dependence on the Middle East for roughly 30 % of global fertiliser supply. Historically, disruptions—whether from wars, sanctions or market consolidation—have caused ripple effects, as seen during the 2008 food price surge. Yara’s warning underscores the fragility of a market dominated by a handful of producers, where geopolitical events quickly become economic shocks. Looking ahead, the outlook hinges on diversification of supply chains, accelerated development of locally adapted fertiliser formulations, and policy measures that safeguard critical inputs. Without coordinated action, the current trajectory could embed higher food costs into the post‑pandemic recovery, undermining efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The fertiliser crisis thus serves as a barometer of broader systemic risks facing global agriculture.